1、 Overview of packaging and printing industry
According to the classification of packaging materials, the packaging industry can be divided into paper packaging, metal packaging, plastic packaging, glass packaging and other fine molecular industries. From the perspective of industrial chain, the upstream of packaging and printing industry is mainly papermaking and equipment manufacturing, and the downstream connects industries such as cigarette, it electronics, food and beverage. The upstream raw materials are mainly plastics, equipment, waste paper and wood pulp, while the downstream industries have a large demand for cigarettes, it electronics and food and beverage products.
Source: compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
The state has issued a series of policies to promote and promote the development of the packaging industry. The development plan of China's packaging industry (2016-2020) clearly points out that during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of the national packaging industry will keep pace with the growth of the national economy. By the end of the 13th five year plan, the annual income of the packaging industry will reach 2.5 trillion yuan, the total export volume of packaging products will increase by more than 20% compared with the 12th Five Year Plan period, and the global market share will not be less than 20%.
During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the main tasks of the development of the packaging industry: take independent innovation as the strategic basis for the development of the industry and the main support for transformation and upgrading, and comprehensively promote the green transformation of the packaging industry and constantly consolidate the foundation for the construction of "packaging power" around the main tasks of independent innovation ability, in-depth integration of industrialization and industrialization, military civilian integration packaging, industrial development foundation, cultivation of emerging business forms, packaging standard construction, packaging brand building and so on.
2、 Analysis on the development status of packaging and printing industry
In recent years, the global packaging and printing industry has entered a mature period of stable development, and the growth rate is basically the same as the average growth rate of the world economy. According to statistics, in 2017, the global market size of packaging and printing industry was US $851 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In recent years, the growth rate basically fluctuated slightly around the center of 2%, close to the natural economic growth rate of developed economies.
Source: public data sorting
However, the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy and the expanding downstream demand drive the growth rate of the market scale of China's packaging and printing industry to be much higher than the global industry average. In 2017, the main business income of enterprises in China's packaging and printing industry (excluding packaging machinery sub industry) was 1104.837 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year in 2016.
Source: public data sorting
3、 Analysis on downstream demand of packaging and printing industry in China
China's per capita packaging consumption is significantly lower than the global level, and there is still much room for improvement in the future. From the perspective of total volume, although the scale of China's packaging and printing market grows rapidly, the per capita consumption is only US $12 / year, which still has a large gap compared with major countries and regions in the world. Even considering the objective factors such as price and population density, the "ceiling" of China's packaging and printing industry is far from being achieved. With the improvement of people's living standards, the display and sales packaging of consumer goods has been miniaturized and the environmental protection performance has been improved; The volume of storage and transportation packaging increases with the penetration of e-commerce. The market scale of China's packaging and printing industry is expected to expand and the supply and demand structure is expected to continue to upgrade.
China's per capita packaging consumption is significantly lower than that of developed countries (USD / year)
Source: public data sorting
The printing industry can be divided into packaging printing, publication printing and business printing. In the field of packaging printing, cigarette label printing, wine label printing and other paper packaging such as drugs, daily necessities and electronic products are the main sources of demand for packaging printing.
1. Express packaging
In terms of storage and transportation packaging, the demand for express delivery has expanded to replace the manufacturing and export of industrial products, becoming the main driver of domestic storage and transportation packaging.
Due to the high degree of standardization and fast volume of storage and transportation packaging, reviewing the business structure of leading enterprises such as international paper and American International packaging, storage and transportation packaging are the main driving force for their business growth. In China, the manufacturing and export of industrial products used to be the main engine driving the growth of storage, transportation and packaging demand, but since 2011, the main driving force of its growth has been switched to the express packaging demand formed by the development of e-commerce business. Goods traded online cannot be separated from offline express delivery and logistics distribution. The domestic developed logistics system also provides strong support for the increasing penetration of e-commerce year by year. Since 2011, there has been a "blowout growth" in the volume of express business above Designated Size in China. From January to October 2018, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 39.43 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%; Business revenue totaled 478.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%.
Source: National Post Office
2. Cigarette label printing
In October 2018, the national cigarette output was 182.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of - 1.7%; The national cigarette output increased by 78.8-1.2% year-on-year in 2018. From January to December 2017, China's cumulative cigarette output was 23448.83 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. In 2016, China's cigarette output was 2382.58 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
The tobacco label industry is facing new challenges from the following two aspects: first, due to the implementation of national public bidding and benchmarking in the tobacco label industry, the price of tobacco labels may decline to a certain extent due to the fierce competition among enterprises. Second, the rise of raw materials for cigarette label production and possible inflation lead to an increase in the costs of procurement, process, electricity, transportation, sales, labor and so on.
3. Beer label printing market
China is the country with the largest beer production and the world's largest beer consumer, with total sales exceeding 25% of the world's total beer sales. China's per capita beer consumption still lags far behind that of the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea; Moreover, the consumption level of beer in China is very uneven. First, there is a great gap between the eastern and western regions. Second, the consumption level of beer in urban areas is high and that in rural areas is low. In 2014, China's beer production decreased by 0.96% year-on-year, with negative growth for the first time in more than 20 years. From 2015 to 2017, the output of the industry decreased year by year. After adjustment in the previous four years, beer production increased slightly by 0.5% from January to July 2018. On the whole, China's beer consumption has entered the mature period from the growth period. The increase of China's elderly population, coupled with the national restrictions on drunk driving, "eight provisions", open-air barbecue cleaning and other policies, have had a certain impact on beer consumption in the past few years. It is expected that China's beer production will remain basically stable for some time in the future.
Source: compiled by Huajing Industrial Research Institute
With the increase of residents' income, consumers' consumption habits and consumption structure are constantly changing. In particular, consumers have higher and higher requirements for food safety and product quality, and have stronger and stronger pursuit of brand. New groups that emphasize "sensory" consumption and pursue fashion, health, personalization and differentiation have become an important part of beer consumption groups, The income level per ton of domestic beer will continue to improve in the future. The increase of income per ton of wine means the rise of beer unit price, including the rise of overall parity unit price and the structural change of the increase in the proportion of high-grade beer. The rise of beer unit price has a positive impact on the price and gross profit space of beer labels. In particular, high-end beer puts forward higher requirements for the printing technology, anti-counterfeiting technology and design level of wine labels, which brings benefits to high-end printing enterprises.
4. Other paper packaging markets such as drugs, daily necessities and electronic products
Pharmaceutical, daily chemical, electronic products, food and other industries that need paper packaging are also downstream industries of packaging and printing. Among them, the demand for paper packaging technology, quality and technical content of high-grade cosmetics and electronic products is gradually increasing, which is increasingly converging with cigarette labels and wine labels.
The market fluctuations of the above industries are generally consistent with the macroeconomic cycle, especially the economic cycle of retail industry. Affected by the decline of the national economic growth rate, the growth momentum of consumer goods demand is not strong, but the structural growth of high-end products in various industries still has great potential driven by the goal of doubling residents' income.
In addition, under the influence of new business models such as e-commerce and the Internet of things, there is a new demand for logistics packaging, new commodity packaging and printing technology. In 2018, China's Internet of things, cold chain logistics and other fields will be further developed and improved. The online shopping of frozen food, normal temperature food, raw and auxiliary food materials and other commodities in China will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend, and will continue to bring substantial demand growth to the packaging and printing industry.
4、 Competition pattern of packaging and printing industry
China's packaging and printing industry is scattered and the market concentration is low. Taking the paper packaging industry as an example, the Cr4 of the paper packaging industry in the United States reaches 70%, the CR2 of Australia and Taiwan reaches 90% and 62% respectively, while the CR10 of China's paper packaging industry is less than 5%. At present, China's packaging and printing industry is still in a state of decentralized competition. The total number of Enterprises above Designated Size in the packaging and printing industry increased from 4321 in 2013 to 5693 in 2017. Small and medium-sized packaging enterprises are the main participants in the market, while a few leading enterprises do not occupy a significant dominant position in the packaging and printing market.
Source: public data sorting
Overall, China's packaging industry is moving towards a powerful packaging country, and the pattern of intensified competition is very obvious due to the large number of industry competition and enterprises in the industry. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the packaging industry will focus on the development of six major projects such as green packaging, intelligent packaging and safety packaging, promote the innovative development and green development of the packaging industry, create an upgraded version of the packaging economy, and realize the substantive transformation of the industry from large to strong.
From the perspective of industry development space, there is still a certain development space, but from the perspective of industrial competition, especially the changes of company competition in the industry, a pattern of fierce competition will be formed, and some backward enterprises may be eliminated, while large-scale companies with obvious technological advantages, paying attention to shareholder returns, being able to cut into the packaging of new technologies and open the market share will still reflect the track form of development.